消费群体异质、政府特质和房产泡沫——基于一个政治经济学模型和70个城市的面板数据

The Divergence of Consumers,Government Characteristics and Real Estate Bubble:An Analysis Based on a Political Economy Model and Panel Data Including 70 Cities

富裕阶层、普通阶层对房产市场调控力度的不同诉求,会影响到政府调控力度的选择。富裕阶层期望弱的调控力度,进而大的泡沫,普通阶层则相反。把社会稳定作为一个重要目标的政府,通过权衡这两个阶层的利益诉求,进而选择适当的调控力度,来最大化其政治利益。我们认为,贫富差距和政府公正度对调控力度有正向影响。本文利用全国70个城市2002到2008年的面板数据,对该假说进行了验证。

The rich agents and poor agents expect different levels of regulation in the real estate market. The rich agents expect a weaker regulation level,then a larger bubble,while the poor agents expect the opposite. And their expectations will influence the government＇s decision .The stability of the society is one of the most important goal of the government,so the government will decide the regulation level by balancing these two agents’ interests and in this way the government can get the greatest political benefit. We suppose that the impact of the inequality and government bias to the regulation level is positive. And using a panel date from 2002 to 2008 including 70 cities,we test our proposition.