中美两国利率政策的有效性探讨

The Validity Discussion on Interest Rate Policies between China and U.S.

作为实施货币政策的重要工具,利率的调整将会对国民经济的运行产生重要的影响。但是,利率对宏观经济的哪些指标产生影响,影响程度如何并没有统一的结论。本文利用中美两国近三十年的国民经济运行指标数据,实证利率对国民经济中重要经济运行指标的影响,认为中国利率政策的有效性发挥不足,美国的利率政策有效性发挥充分。同时分析了利率政策在两国产生不同的有效性的原因。并借鉴美国利率政策的实施经验,对如何增强中国的利率政策有效性提出建议。

As an important tool for monetary policy implications,interest rate has great influence on national economy.However,what the level of influence the interest rate affecting the macro-economic regulation hasn't a uniform conclusion.With the help of almost 30 years of national economic empirical data,this article discusses the interest rates' impact on the national economy by means of positive analysis.We find that China's interest rate policy isn't fully validity,while interest rate policy in the United States plays a fully validity.Meanwhile,an analysis of what causes interest rates' different validities is examined.Finally,drawing on the experience of the American interest rate policy implementation,we offer proposals on how to increase the validity of interest rate policy in China.