基于投入产出偏差模型的我国出口商品内涵碳排分析

An Analysis on Embodied Carbon Emission in Exports of China based on Input-Output Biased Estimate Model

作为世界最主要的贸易国和"世界加工工厂"的中国,商品贸易已成为影响国内碳排放的重要因素。本文首先采用投入产出分析方法,对2002年、2005年及2007年我国21个贸易产业部门出口商品中的内涵碳排进行测算,继而利用投入产出偏差模型将我国2002～2005年及2005～2007年间出口商品中的内涵碳排变化进行因素分解。结果显示,技术效应成为促进我国出口商品内涵碳排量减少的主要因素;结构效应对减排由负效应转为正效应,我国贸易结构虽有所改善,但对减排贡献度还不高,仍有很大潜力,本文对此提出了相应的优化贸易结构的政策建议。

Trade creates a mechanism for consumers to shift CO_2 emission associated with their consumption to other countries. Applying an input-output approach,the paper estimates the amount of CO_2 embodied in China's goods exports in 2002,2005 and 2007.Then,based on an input-output biased estimate model,the embodied CO_2 changed in exports of China was decomposed into scale effect,technological effect and structure effect from 2002 to 2005 and from 2005 to 2007.The results show that the technical effect had decreased the CO_2 emissions embodied in trade while the scale effect offset a small part of them which accounts most of bias.The structure effect didn't play a key role which had experienced a course that from increasing bias to decreasing bias.Finally,some policy suggestions on trade structure optimization are presented.