中国金融稳定指数的构建及测度分析

The Measurement and Analysis of Index of China's Financial Stability

美国次贷问题引发全球金融危机以来,金融稳定问题再次提上重要议事日程并受到世界各国的关注。笔者在梳理并借鉴已有研究成果的基础上,通过计算反映金融机构、金融市场、外部冲击以及宏观经济运行状况的各项基础指标对其长期均值的偏离,并根据主成分分析方法赋予不同基础指标的权重,进而合成综合的金融稳定指数(FSI),用以衡量金融稳定状况。通过测度与检验,该指数既可以大致反映当前中国的金融运行状况,也能够在一定程度上预测未来中国金融稳定状况的变化趋势。

Since the world financial crisis which was caused by America＇s subprime crisis, the issue of financial stability was taken into the agenda and attracted attentions from all countries. By calculating the deviation of the financial institution, financial market and shocks from their long-term means, absorbing experience of exiting researches for reference and using the method of Principal Component Analysis, this paper puts forward a new method of comprehensive Financial Stability Index to measure the condition of China＇s current financial stability. After measuring and testing, the Financial Stability Index was proved to be suitable to reflect China＇s current financial conditions and can be used to forecast the changing tendency of China＇s future financial stability condition;