中国政府卫生支出的最优规模及其实现

The Optimal Size of Government Health Spending in China and its Fulfillment

笔者运用中国1978年至2009年政府卫生支出与GDP等相关数据,对政府卫生支出的性质、最优规模及实现进行了实证分析。研究结论表明:政府卫生支出是生产性支出;目前中国政府卫生支出规模不足,其最优规模应占GDP的11.9%;政府卫生支出的边际产出随其规模负向变动;当年人均GDP与上年政府卫生支出水平对当年政府卫生支出水平具有显著影响。笔者在最优取向增长模型中预测了2011年至2020年各年政府卫生支出规模,希望为动态实现政府卫生支出最优规模提供合理途径。

This paper makes an empirical research on the government health spending, its optimal size and fulfillment by analyzing government health spending, GDP and other related data in each year of 1978--2009 in China. The result shows that government health spending in China is highly productive; the current size of government health spending is under-provided and its optimal size should be accounted for 11.9~ of GDP; the marginal product of government health spending relates negatively with its size; and government health spending depends on its size of the year before and GDP per capita. Finally, this paper forecasts the size of government health spending in each year in 2011- 2020 under the framework of an optimum orientation growth model, aiming at finding out a reasonable approach to realizing the optimal size of government health spending dynamically.