人口变化及其对空间发展的影响——以德国为例(英文)

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON SPATIAL DEVELOPMENT——THE SITUATION OF GERMANY

在分析人口变化如何影响德国的城镇和区域发展的基础上,探讨了在城市与区域规划中如何应对人口变化的主要结果——人口缩减和老龄化的。人口减少对二战以来东德和西德的区域发展有重要影响作用。但是,直到1990年两德统一以前,两德的城市与区域规划一直是建立在人口增长的假设之上。两德统一以后,人口缩减和老龄化对城市和农村发展起到了决定性作用。首先,研究了人口缩减和老龄化的起因和结果,由于人口变化在东德更为显著,因此以东德为例,进行实证分析。其次,重点讨论如何应对人口衰减和老龄化带来的问题。对于城市地区而言,可以采用两种模式——"紧缩式"和"穿孔式",这两种方式都可以通过减少建筑面积和增加绿色空间或利用强度较小的土地类型来提高生活质量。对于农村地区而言,则需要采取更加严格的方式来应对人口减少和老龄化。一条可行的路径是通过撤销公共服务设施等方式,有计划地舍弃部分村庄,将村民在城镇中进行集中安置。

This paper argues that demographic shrinking and stagnation processes have influenced urban development in East and West Germany since the end of WW II at almost all times.Nevertheless,until reunification of both German countries in 1990 urban planning have always been based on the assumption of growth.Then,after reunification demographic change began to influence cities and rural regions decisively through shrinking.In the context of aging and shrinking,the causes and consequences of shrinking were discussed.This discussion focused on examples in East Germany as shrinking occurred much more intensively in this part of the country.The second part of the paper focused on strategies tackling the problem of shrinking.For urban areas the strategies of concentration and perforation were being discussed.Both contributed to a higher quality of life in cities by reducing the built-up area and developing green spaces or less intensive uses instead.Shrinking in remote rural regions on the other hand would need to be handled with much more rigidity.One possible solution would be a systematic spatial retreat,by giving up public infrastructure or more radically giving up entire regions by relocating people and concentrating them in towns.