货币供给量、货币结构与中国经济趋势:1650～1936

Money Supply,Monetary Structure and Economic Development Trend in China:From 1650～1936

货币与经济的关系以及货币政策的有效性一直存在很大争论。本文通过对1650～1936年近三百年间中国的货币供给、货币制度和货币结构的变化,以及在此背景下中国经济发展趋势的分析,探讨了经济近代化过程中货币与经济的关系。研究表明:18世纪货币量的充足供给推动了这一时期商品经济的发展和经济增长,为现代经济的成长准备了条件;近代时期的货币供给特别是纸币和银行存款快速的增长,则直接推动了近代意义的投资、资本形成和经济增长。货币结构的变化反映了经济结构的变迁和现代经济的成长。

About relationship between money and economy, and the effectiveness of monetary policy, mainstream economists never reach a unanimous conclusion. This paper analyzes the changes of money supply, monetary system and currency structure, and China＇s economic development trends in the period of 1650-1936, thereby studies the relationship between currency and economic development in the process of economic modernization. The results show that： in the 18th century an adequate money supply promoted the development of commodity economy and economic growth, as well as Prepared the conditions for economic modernization. In the modern history of China, the growth of money supply, in particular notes and bank deposits, directly pushed the modern-sense investment, capital formation and economic growth.