业绩预告修正信息质量的实证研究——基于上市公司2007～2009年业绩预告修正的分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Reliability of Earnings Forecast Revision Based on Earnings Forecast Revision of China's Listed Companies from 2007 to 2009

本文利用2007～2009年沪深两市A股上市公司业绩预告修正数据,实证检验了业绩预告修正信息的可靠性。研究发现,预告修正过程中存在盈余管理,原预告坏消息的公司会在预告之后主动修正预告,盈余管理与业绩修正方向相同,而原预告好消息的公司进行的预告修正是被动的,盈余管理的方向与预告修正的方向相反。另外,资产重组和债务重组是业绩预告修正公司常用的调高盈余的手段。

In order to give more incitement to the information disclosure of listed companies,we need investigate more deeply into the process of earnings forecast revision.This paper empirically tests the revision of forecast.We find that the companies that forecast bad news tend to revise forecast actively,the direction of earnings management and forecast revision tends to be the same.However,the companies who forecast good news tend to revise forecast passively,the direction of earnings management and forecast revision tend to be the opposite.The earnings management hurts the reliability of information revision.