金融深化、财政支出与经常项目顺差

Financial Deepening,Fiscal Expenditure and Current Account Surplus

文章从一个新的角度实证分析了我国经常项目大幅顺差的成因,利用中国1982～2008年时间序列数据和可靠的计量方法,在5变量系统内考察了金融深化、财政支出对经常项目的影响,实证结果显示:金融深化和财政支出是影响经常项目的重要因素,其中金融深化对经常项目的影响处于上升的趋势,是影响中国经常项目的最重要的因素,而财政支出对经常项目的影响处于下滑的趋势;进一步分析发现,国内低层次的金融发展水平和低水平的社会性公共支出导致经常项目持续大额顺差的出现,文章据此提出调节中国经常项目持续大额盈余的政策建议。

This paper makes an empirical analysis of the cause of large current account surplus in China from a new perspective. Using the time-series data from 1982 to 2008 and reliable measurement methods, it studies the effect of financial deepening and fiscal expenditure on current account in 5 variable systems. The empirical results show that financial deepening and fiscal expenditure are the main factors affecting current account, and financial deepening is the most important factor with its effect on current account having an upward trend while the effect of fiscal expenditure on current account has a downward trend. It further finds that the low levels of domestic financial development and social public expenditure cause a continuously large current account surplus. Accordingly, it proposes some policy recommendations for adjusting the surplus.