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一类具有收治率的艾滋病传播的随机模型及其风险分析

A Stochastic Model for Risk Analysis of AIDS Transmission with Treatment Rate
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摘要 建立一类考虑收治率因素的艾滋病传播的随机微分方程模型,分析了其渐近稳定性,得到收治率的一个临界值表达式,通过仿真,验证该临界值对艾滋病消亡的作用,并比较不同的疾病传播率对艾滋病传播过程的影响.相应地,针对不同的疾病传播率,给定同一个控制目标,分别计算了在4种不同的收治强度下,艾滋病病毒感染者人数占总人口比例超过该控制目标的风险概率,从而为艾滋病的预防与控制提供一定的决策支持. A stochastic model is presented for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome（AIDS） transmission with treatment rate and its asymptotic behavior is analyzed.A critical value for the treatment rate is illustrated for the proportion to tend to the disease equilibrium by simulation.Comparison is also given between the effects of different values for the disease transmission rate on AIDS transmission.Given a control aim,the risk probability is computed for the proportion of the population infected with HIV（human immunodeficiency virus） against total population exceeding the aim under four cases when different values are given to the disease transmission rate.By this means,some strategies are developed for AIDS prevention and control.
作者 徐敏 胡良剑 丁永生
机构地区 上海对外贸易学院商务信息学院 东华大学理学院 东华大学信息科学与技术学院
出处 《东华大学学报（自然科学版）》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2011年第3期382-386,共5页 Journal of Donghua University(Natural Science)
基金 教育部人文社科基金资助项目(08JA630051) 上海市教委085资助项目(Z08509008-01) 上海高校选拔优秀青年教师科研专项基金资助项目(B-5300-08-007)
关键词 艾滋病(AIDS) 随机模型 收治率 疾病平衡点 风险概率 acquired immunodeficiency syndrome（AIDS） stochastic model treatment rate disease equilibrium risk probability
分类号 X43 [环境科学与工程—灾害防治] O141.4 [理学—基础数学]
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参考文献16

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二级参考文献14

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东华大学学报（自然科学版）
2011年 第3期

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