基于经济影响度模型的上海世博影响力预测

Model Based on Economic Impact of the Shanghai World Expo Impact Forecast

从经济角度切入,以2000年世博申办委员会成立为界,综合分析了2010年世博会申办前后上海市历年三大产业生产总值、世博参观人数、机场客运吞吐量等数据,运用多元回归分析、灰色预测、组合预测分别构建了世博长期、短期、综合经济影响度模型,运用Excel、Matlab软件得出上海世博会经济影响力定量化的结果。2000年起长期经济影响度逐年递增,2010年1月到8月短期经济影响度呈现出跳跃增长,且在5月跃度较大。这些结果表明世博对上海的经济发展存在着长尾拉动作用。最后结合相关资料,本文总结了上海世博对经济的影响具有多元性、阶段性、带动性、非均衡性和长效性等特点,并对上海市建设提出合理的建议。

This article depends on the economy. From the establishment of the Expo 2000 Bid Committee, we analysis the GDP data about the three major industries ,expo visitors number, airport passenger throughput and other data, during the time, and use multiple regression analysis, grey prediction and combination forecast to construct long-term, short-term and Integrated economic impact Model, using Excel and Matlab software. Since 2000, long-term economic effect has been increasing trend. From January to August in 2010,short-term economic effect growth shows jumping, and steps for larger in May. These results indicated that the economic development of Shanghai expo 2010 exist role in boosting the long tail. Finally, in conjunction with the relevant material, This paper summarizes the impact on the economy of the Shanghai world expo with diversity, gradualness, unbalanced and long-term DaiDongXing, characteristics of Shanghai construction, and put forward reasonable Suggestions.