我国总量均衡区间的实际估算问题

Estimating China's Aggregate Equilibrium Interval

在操作层面上,承认总量均衡区间的存在已获得多方认同。正确估算我国宏观经济运行中的总量均衡区间并揭示其基本演进趋势,一方面为我们正视总量均衡区间的存在、准确估计总量均衡区间对我国宏观经济运行与调控的影响强度,提供了直接而具体的依据,另一方面,也为我们从存在总量均衡区间的实际出发,科学地研究并实施相应应对方略,化解由总量均衡区间的存在所生发的诸多负面影响,进而为改进与完善宏观调控、提高调控质量和水平,提供了稳固而可靠的基础。

Starting from the concept of Aggregate Equilibrium Interval （？tEl）, whose existence is commonly accepted on the operational level, this work gives a clear explanation of the formation mechanism of AEI, followed by a tentative estimation of the AEI in China＇s present macro economy. The evolution trend of China＇s AEI is then outlined according to the results, which is expected to serves as a strategic reference to improving the rationality and accuracy of China＇s c adjustment.