中国经济增长与能源消费动态关系——基于面板向量自回归模型的分析

The Dynamic Relationship between Chinese Economic Development and Energy Consumption;Analysis Based on Panel VAR

为了更加深刻地认识地区经济发展与能源消费的短期波动及相互影响,文章构建面板数据向量自回归模型,检验中国29个省市地区,1997～2009年间经济发展水平和能源消费量两者互相对对方的冲击情况。研究表明,经济增长与能源消费的相互拉动作用是非对等的;电力、柴油和汽油单个能源消费和短缺对经济增长波动影响较小,表现出能源间的替代性;能源总量的消费对经济增长波动的影响较显著,与之前研究认为影响性较小的结论有所不同。在制定能源政策时,需要考虑能源总量供给和单个能源供给对经济增长的不同影响。

In order to more profound understanding of the short - term fluctuations and interaction of the rela- tionship between Chinese regional economic development and energy consumption, this paper applies a panel VAR mode to re - investigate the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 29 provinces in China's Mainland from 1997 to 2009. The empirical results show that the influence between Chinese economic growth and the energy consumption has non - reciprocal ; electricity, diesel and gasoline single kind of energy consumption supply shortage affect the growth of economic volatility weekly; total energy consumption influence on economic growth is significant , and different from previous study＇s conclusions. In the formulation of energy policy, the government needs to consider the different effects on economic growth with the total energy supply and single kind of energy supply.