贸易是否需要信任?——基于交易成本的解释及中国省际数据

Does International Trade Need Trust? An Explanation Based on Transaction Cost and A Tempt Based on China's Regional Data

非正式制度在贸易中的作用受到了越来越多的关注。从交易成本的角度分析信任对贸易的影响,得出结论:信任能够降低交易成本,进而促进贸易。这在一定程度上能够解释所谓的"贸易余值之谜"。基于中国省际信任数据分析结论认为,在中国,信任与总贸易量、进口、出口以及FDI等国际贸易指标都有着较高的相关性,信任与国内贸易相关指标也呈现出较高的正相关性。因此,进一步的分析认为,信任可能是解释中国各个省份间贸易差异的一个因素,相关研究仍需深入。

The role of informal institution in international trade has been paid much attention recently. This paper analyses how trust effects trade based on the view of transaction cost. The result is ： trust can reduce transaction cost and then enhance international trade. This can explain the so called ＂mystery of the missing trade＂. Based on China＇s regional trust data, we find that, trust has a positive correlation with total trade, export, import and FDI, it also has a positive correlation with domestic trade. So, trust may be an important factor that can explain the difference of international trade and domestic trade on provincial level.