基于灰色模型的中国能源需求预测

Analyzing and forecasting of energy requirement in China based on GM

首先阐述了国内外在能源需求预测方面的研究现状,以此为基础,采用灰色模型预测法分别对中国的煤炭、石油和天然气需求量进行预测,综合确定了三大能源2011-2020年的需求量。据此提出了中国未来能源开发及利用的建议:以技术为支撑,节能优先,提高能源利用效率;调整煤炭内部结构,建立国家石油战略储备体系,加大开发利用天然气;大力开发新能源。

Based on elaborating current situation on energy requirement home and abroad, the requirement of the primary energy is simulated and forecasted with GM. By consulting the results from experts, the overall energy requirement of China in 2011 to 2020 is forecasted. Based on results above, the corresponding plicies put forward to develop and utilize the energy resource in the future are as follow： improving the efficiency of energy, developing science and technology to establish technology strategies, adjusting internal structure of coal resource, setting up petrol reservation system, enlarging the use of natural gas, and exploiting new energy.