近30年塔里木河流域植棉业的时空演化过程

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Cotton Production in the Tarim River Basin in Recent 30 Years

基于1949-2007年棉花发展统计数据,应用发展度与适宜度评价方法,分析塔里木河流域植棉业的发展历程及空间演化特征。研究表明:①1949年以来,塔里木河流域植棉业历经缓慢发展、快速发展、控制发展3个阶段;②主产棉区呈现西退、东扩、北进的趋势,植棉县市的植棉业发展趋势分为优势持续、优势后发、优势衰退、优势微弱、不占优势5种演化类型;③塔里木河干流区的重点植棉区与植棉适宜空间较为协调,干流北部不宜植棉区与南部次宜植棉区棉田面积盲目扩大;④优势增长型的主产棉区完全位于适宜植棉区之内,优势后发型的主产棉区在适宜植棉区、次宜植棉区甚至不宜植棉区均有分布,优势衰退型、优势微弱型以及不占优势型主要位于次宜植棉区与不宜植棉区。

The Tarim River Basin is one of the most appropriate areas to produce cotton in China.It has become as the main area to produce high-quality cotton in China because of its natural advantages since recent decades.Based on the statistical data of cotton production during the period of 1949-2007,in this paper the spatiotemporal evolution of cotton production in the Tarim River Basin was analyzed based on the development index and suitability index.The results are as follows：（1） Cotton production in the Tarim River Basin was developed remarkably during the period from 1949 to 2007.The process of cotton production development was divided into three phases,i.e.the slow progress during the period of 1949-1985,rapid growth during the period from 1986 to 1999,and controlled expansion from 2000;（2） With the rapid development of cotton production,the major cotton production areas were reduced in the west Tarim River Basin while expanded eastward and northward.The development trend of cotton production could be divided into 5 evolution types,i.e.the steady predominance,promotional predominance,declining predominance,feeble predominance and naught predominance;（3） Suitability of cotton production in the Tarim River Basin is different from different regions.The counties with suitable temperature,abundant arable land and enough water resources around the mainstream of the Tarim River were the suitable regions to plant cotton.Several counties in the north Tarim River Basin are unsuitable for cotton production because of unfavorable climate.Other counties are the hypo-suitable regions to plant cotton;（4） The preponderant cotton production areas around the mainstream of the Tarim River correspond with the suitable region of producing cotton.Some cotton production areas are irrationally expanded.The cotton production areas with steady predominance are distributed in the suitable regions of producing cotton.Some cotton production areas with promotional predominance are in the suitable regions,and some in the hypo-suitable or unsuitable regions.The other cotton production areas were mainly in the hypo-suitable and unsuitable regions.