日本强震及核危机对全球经济的影响

Impact of Japan's Earthquake and the Nuclear Crisis on the Global Economy

地震、海啸、核安全问题接连发生,日本正在经历史上罕见的"大创伤"。强震、海啸、核危机对日本经济的负面冲击明显大于阪神地震。日本地震后的灾后重建与阪神地震时的财政环境明显不同,地震提高了日本政府的违约风险和隐含的主权债务风险。但对世界经济整体而言,日本大地震不会影响全球经济复苏的步伐。虽然全球股市企稳回升,但"核阴云"笼罩亚太、大宗商品呈现先抑后扬的态势,加之受利比亚战争及发达国家的量化宽松货币政策等外围因素影响,日本大地震使全球金融市场未来面临诸多不确定性。日本地震对中国经济影响有限,灾后重建对中国出口及产业发展带来有利契机。

Japan is experiencing the ＂big ravage＂ from the earthquakes, tsunamis, nuclear safety issues in succession. Its negative impact on Japanese economy was obviously greater than that of the Hanshin earthquake, but Japanese earthquake will not affect the pace of global economic recovery as a whole. A- sia Pacific surrounded by the ＂nuclear cloud＂, coupled with the external factors of Libya war and the ea- sing quantitative monetary policy, Japan＇s earthquake brought more uncertainties to the global financial market. Japan＇s earthquake had a limited influence on China＇s economy, but its post-disaster reconstruction gave a beneficial opportunity to China＇s industrial development.