利益集团固化前提下商品房泡沫形成因素的主成分分析

The Principal Component Analysis on Factors of Real Estate Bubbles Under the Premise of Fixed Interest Groups

国内商品房泡沫形成机制研究主要从投资者理性市场有效和投资者非理性市场无效假设前提下出发,研究指标也局限于房价上升幅度与GDP增幅之比、房价与收入比、空置率、租售比和投机比率等.为便于研究,在利益集团固化假设前提下,利用价格指标,展开主成分分析.利用福州2006年-2010年商品房各项数据指标加以实证,得出不同利益集团在价格泡沫中的贡献率不同,并就原因进行分析,为商品房泡沫治理提供依据.

The study of mechanism of the domestic real estate bubble market mainly be based on rational investors in an effective market and non-rational investors in an ineffective market,the indicators of study are also limited to the ratio between the price rise and the GDP growth,the ratio between house price and income,the vacancy rate,rental rate ratio and speculation.For the facility of the research,the principal component analysis was expanded by using price indicators under the assumption of fixed interest groups.Meanwhile,the use of the method above is proved by the data of FUZHOU between 2006 and 2010,the results showed that the ratio of the contribution of fixed interest groups are not same,it may provide a basis for preventing realestate bubble.