快速城镇化地区的时空扩展特征及规划实施评价研究

On the Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Expansion and Land-use Planning Implementation Evaluation in Rapid Urbanizing Area

以富阳市为研究区域,利用1996年、2004年和2009年3个时期的土地利用现状数据以及1997—2010年、2006—2020年土地利用总体规划数据,运用GIS空间分析技术和统计学方法提取富阳市1996—2009年的城镇扩展信息及土地利用变化信息,分析城镇空间扩展格局及其驱动因素,并与土地利用规划数据作数量和空间对比分析。研究结果表明,富阳市的城镇用地面积在1996—2009年间增加了3.73倍,从城镇空间扩展的模式上看,城镇的扩展区域主要位于富春江沿岸的两侧,并以富阳城区为中心向周围城镇扩张,建设用地和城镇扩张空间布局与1997—2010年土地利用总体规划方向和重点上是基本一致的,但建设用地规模和建设占用耕地量远远超过了上一轮规划的规模,这主要是上一轮规划没有预测到社会经济和城市化的超常规发展。城镇化还将快速推进,在杭州湾经济辐射带的带动和土地利用总体规划的控制影响下,富阳市未来的城镇发展的格局逐渐呈现为向东部、西北部延伸扩展的趋势。

The study extracted the land-use change in Fuyang City from 1996 to 2009,using data about the land use map in 1996,2004 and 2009 and the land use master plans of 1997-2010 and 2006-2020.Meanwhile,urban spatial expansion pattern and the driving factors were analyzed throught spatial analysis,and the expansion trend of Fuyang was predicted.The results indicated that the urban land of Fuyang City increased 3.73 times in the period of 1996-2009 and the expansion areas were mostly located along the Fuchun River,and centered around Fuyang City proper.Expansion of construction land and urban spatial distribution were basically the same,as the 1997-2010 land use planning in direction and focus suggested,but the scale was much bigger than the size of the last round of planning.This was mainly because the last round of planning did not anticipate extraordinary development of the society,the economy and urbanization.Rapid urbanization will further advance the economy.In the future,the pattern of Fuyang urban development will shift toward the east and the north-west parts,driven by the coupled influence of Hangzhou Bay Economic Zone and the land use master planning.