畜产品价格上涨对黑龙江省物价的影响——基于投入产出价格波及效应模型

Research on Price Rippling Effect of Livestock Product in Heilongjiang Province

通过2007年黑龙江省136个产业部门的投入产出表,借助投入产出价格波及效应模型对黑龙江省畜产品价格进行波及效应分析,结果表明:畜产品价格的上涨导致其他产业部门产品成本增加,降低行业利润,特别是畜产品消耗量较大以及对畜产品价格变动敏感的加工制造业(屠宰及肉类加工业,皮革、毛皮、羽毛(绒)及其制品业,液体乳及乳制品制造业,等等),但对整个黑龙江省的物价水平的影响并不大。在此基础上对2010年上半年畜产品价格涨幅进行了模拟,提出了继续巩固政策效应,创新补贴资金使用机制,建立调控长效机制,加强畜禽疫病防控,提高产业化组织程度等对策建议。

This paper analyzes the price rippling effect of Heilongjiang Province＇s livestock product by applying 2007＇s input-output table about 136 industries in Heilongjiang Province.It concludes that if livestock product has a rising price,it will promote the cost increasing of relevant industries,especially the processing and manufacturing industries,such as slaughtering and meat processing industry,leather,fur,feathers（down） and their product-processing industry,milk and dairy product manufacturing industry,and so on.These industries consume a lot of livestock product and are sensitive to its price changing,and their profit decreases.However,the impact of the price level should not be large in Heilongjiang Province.Finally,referring to the price rising of livestock product in the first half of 2010,it simulates how it will promote the price of other industries and puts forward following suggestions：continuing to consolidate the policy effects;innovating mechanisms of using subsidies;establishing long-term controlling mechanism;strengthening animal disease prevention and control;improving the level of industrial organization.