不定期船航次估算的风险概率决策研究

A research on risk probability decision making on tramp ship voyage estimate

指出现有不定期船航次估算中存在的问题．通过大量的统计调研，分析某航区出现大风的概率及其对不定期船航次产生的影响．验证不定期船一个航次遇ｋ 次大风而停泊的总天数的概率分布．计算出不定期船航次每天净收益的期望值，从而作出不定期船航次估算的风险概率决策．实例证明结果可靠。

This paper points out the problems in existing tramp ship (TS) voyage estimate. By a number of statistics and investigations, it analyzes the probability of winds within a certain sailing range as well as its influence on a TS voyage. The probability distribution of a TS voyage encountering k times winds are testified and the expected per day net revenue value of a TS voyage is calculated. So that this paper gives out a risk probability decision making of a TS voyage. The results of the real cases prove it to be reliable and realistic.