修正的房价收入比:衡量我国城市房价泡沫水平的更优指标

Modified Housing Price-to-income Ratio:A Better Indicator to Measure the Bubble of Urban Housing Price in China

改革开放以来,我国城镇居民可支配收入连续多年高速增长,本文通过构建一个包含收入增长的模型,估算城镇居民可承受的按揭还款房价收入比极值。在此基础上,考虑到实际购房分为首付和按揭还款两部分,提出了修正的房价收入比这一新指标,用于衡量首付部分或按揭还款部分是否存在泡沫。通过实证检验,发现我国房地产市场的泡沫主要集中在首付部分,且当首付比例超过20%以后,所考察的13个重点城市的房价都存在严重的泡沫。

The disposable income of urban residents in China has been increasing for many years since the reform and opening-up policy.Therefore,the paper constructs a revenue-growth model,in order to estimate the maximal housing-price-to-income ratio of loan repayment which the residents can afford.On this basis,taking into the consideration of the situation that buying a house is actually divided into down payment and loan repayment,we propose a new indicator,modified housing price-to-income ratio,to measure whether there is a bubble in down payment or in loan repayment.Through empirical test,we find that the real estate market bubble in China is mainly concentrated on the down payment part.And when down payment ratio exceeds 20%,the housing market of the 13 key cities reviewed does have quite serious bubble.