“十二五”期间贵州农村三类劳动力规模估算

Scale Estimation of Guizhou's Three Rural Labor Forces in the 12th Five-year-plan Period

农村人口流动必然会引致三类群体产生:外出农民、返乡农民和留守农民群体。使用1996—2009年贵州省统计资料,通过线性模型、时间序列模型等方法,对这三类农民群体"十二五"期间规模的预测表明:期间留守农民人数将缓慢减少;外出农民和返乡农民人数则不同程度地增加;到"十二五"期末,即2015年时,三类群体规模分别将达1 162.75万人、749.42万人和62.74万人。

Rural migrants will inevitably result in three groups of population： flowing-out farmers,returned farmers,and left-behind farmers.Using statistical data of Guizhou province from 1996 to 2009,by linear models,time series models and other methods the paper predicted the scale of three labor forces during the 12th five-year-plan period.It is found that the group of left-behind farmers will slowly decrease while the other two will increase to a different extent.At the end of the period,that is 2015,the three groups will be respectively 11.6275 million,7.4942 million and 0.6274 million.