安徽省沿江地区耕地利用集约度及粮食安全相关分析

Correlation Analysis of Cultivated Land Use Intensity and Food Security Along Yangtze River in Anhui Province

利用1989—2008年的耕地资源与粮食统计数据,运用主成分分析和回归模型预测的研究方法,分析了近20 a安徽省沿江地区耕地利用集约度、粮食安全水平以及二者的相关性。结果表明:(1)耕地利用集约度时序变化明显,为"两升两降"4个变化阶段,其空间差异显著,以北高南低为主要特征;(2)粮食安全指数大体处于安全状态,指数波动起伏上升,区域发展不均衡;(3)耕地利用集约度与粮食安全指数二者相关性系数较大,相关性明显。该研究结果可为安徽省沿江地区耕地资源合理利用和保障粮食安全提供理论依据。

Based on the statistical data of land resources and grain yields during 1989—2008,we analyzed the cultivated land use intensity,food security,and their correlation for the regions along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province using the methods of principal component analysis and regression prediction.The results were as follows.（1） Temporal changes of the land cultivation intensity were evident,with two increasing periods and two decreasing periods;the spatial differences were also apparent with a decreasing trend from north to south.（2） Food security index was generally at a safe state,with the index following a fluctuating upward trend and unbalanced regional development.（3） The correlation between cultivation intensity and food security index was strong.The above results might provide a theoretical basis for the regional intensive use of cultivated land resources and food security assurance for the study region.