美元指数趋势性变动影响因素的计量分析

Analysis of the influence measure in the US dollar index trend changing

长期以来,作为世界主要货币的美元的历次趋势性波动都对全球不同的经济体造成较强的影响。1982—1985年,美元指数的走强,致使拉丁美洲出现债务危机;20世纪90年代,美元指数的走弱,促使日本出现泡沫经济;1996年,美元的再次走强,使得东亚、东南亚再次受到金融危机侵袭;最近几年,由于美元指数出现趋势性走弱,以至于对中国的通货膨胀产生了较大的影响。为了更深刻地研究通货膨胀的本质以便有效地出台相关治理政策,准确地研究美元指数变动的影响因素意义重大。因此,运用多元回归的方法,旨在说明美国宏观经济指标对美元指数变动的影响程度要弱于相关对手货币对美元指数的影响,进而寻求到能够有效防范金融危机发生的措施。

Long as the major currencies in the fluctuations are global trend different economies in the strong influence.in 1982 and 1985 dollars a strong and Latin America in the debt crisis;the 1990s,the dollar of weakness,Japanese;a bubble economy in 1996,the dollar once again,stronger and stronger,that east Asia,southeast Asia financial crisis;again being hit in recent years,the index go up to trend,sometimes.To be more deeply the nature of the study of inflation in order to effectively introduced the related policy research for the index changes US dollar influence of great importance.Therefore,using multiple reunification,macroeconomic indicators are designed to illustrate the united states dollar index changes to the extent of his money for dollars related indices,and seek to be effective measures to guard against financial crisis happened.