基于状态空间模型的中国人均水资源量趋势分析

Trend analysis of per capita water resources based on state-space model in China

作为水资源贫乏国家之一,中国水安全问题已引起广泛关注,了解中国人均水资源组成情况及其发展势态非常必要。利用2000-2007中国地表水和地下水数据对人均水资源量进行回归分析和状态空间模型预测,计算出人均水资源量在此段时间内受到地表水和地下水的平均影响及其随着时间的平均变化。模拟地表水和地下水对中国人均水资源量影响的动态,显示中国人均水资源量增长率随时间具有下降趋势,但近年来下降幅度逐渐减小。结果表明中国近年来的水资源管理总体具有成效。

As a water resources defiency country,the water security in China has been concerned extensively.It is very necessary to understand the composition condition of per capital water resources and its development situation.Using surface water and groundwater data in China from 2000 to 2007,the authors conducted regression model analysis and state-space model prediction to per capital water resources,and calculated the effect of surface water and groundwater to per capital water resources and its variation with time.The per capita water resources decreased substantially,but the amplitude of decrease was reducing by simulating the effect dymatic of surface water and groundwater to per capita water resources,which indicated the recent water resources management was effectively in China.