财政“自动稳定器”为何半有效性?——基于中国财政收支非对称性的经验分析

The Cause of the Semi Effectiveness of "Automatic Stabilizer":An Analysis of Chinese Asymmetrical Feature of Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure

对我国财政"自动稳定器"特征的研究表明:一方面,财政收入具有顺周期特性,它伴随经济上升、下滑出现涨跌态势,有助于平缓经济波动,财政"自动稳定器"作用得到充分发挥;另一方面,财政支出出现非对称特征,经济高涨伴随财政支出快速上升,不仅无助于经济稳定,还会加剧经济过热风险,"自动稳定器"失灵。但从中央地方财政支出结构来看,中央财政支出增幅与经济增幅呈现反向关系,中央财政支出对经济增长有着反周期的平滑作用。结果是财政收支对经济稳定呈现半有效性,即在经济高涨时财政"自动稳定器"失效,在经济下滑时"自动稳定器"的效果显现。

This paper makes a research on the fiscal ＂automatic stabilizer＂ and finds that： On the one hand, the fiscal income behaves with a pro-cyclical feature, and the economic growth or recession is accompanied with the up and down of the fiscal income, indicating that the fiscal income is a strong automatic stabilizer. On the other hand, the fiscal expenditure behaves with an asymmetric feature, and the economic expansion accompanied by the rapid increase of fiscal expenditure may lead to the risk of overheating economy. But there is a strongly inverse relationship between the central government spending and the economic growth, which helps to smooth the economic fluctuation. As a result, the fiscal automatic stabilizer shows a feature of semi effectiveness in the stabilization of economy.