基于模糊综合评价的项目投资风险分析

Analysis the Risk of Investment Project Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

项目风险管理是项目管理的重要一环,可以防范投资失误,对企业具有十分重要的意义。但是由于风险的不确定性又使得风险难以准确的计量。而模糊数学可以对受到多种因素制约的事物或对象做出一个总体的评价,它具有结果清晰、系统性强的特点,能较好地解决模糊的、难以量化的问题,适合各种非确定性问题的解决。模糊综合评价法是一种基于模糊数学的综合评价方法,根据指标本身的重要程度来确定权重,利用专家的经验和知识背景来设置指标体系。文章将模糊综合评价法运用到项目投资风险分析中,为进一步做出项目的风险管理决策提供依据。

Project risk management play an important role in project management,it can prevent investment mistakes and has very important meaning for the enterprise.But because of the uncertainty,the risk is difficult to measure.Fuzzy mathematics is restricted by various factors of the things or object to make an overall evaluation,it has the characteristics of clear,systemic strong,can solve those problems and suitable for all kinds of the uncertain solution of the problems.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on fuzzy mathematics is a kind of comprehensive evaluation method,the important degree according to the index itself to determine the weight,the expert experience and knowledge background to set the index system.This article apply fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to the project investment risk analysis,which aims to provide the further evidence for the project risk management decision.