金融不稳定性是外生冲击引起的吗

Is Financial Instability Caused by Exogenous Shocks?

本文结合Minsky金融具有内生脆弱性和新古典宏观经济学外生冲击的观点,认为金融的不稳定性是金融本身的脆弱性受到外生冲击而导致的。本文建立的一般均衡模型表明和金融市场紧密联系的实际利率,有价证券收益率的随机冲击会影响到金融市场和实体经济的稳定。运用两步GMM方法对中国数据进行的实证研究也支持所建立的一般均衡模型得出的结论,其中利率和外汇的冲击会加剧中国宏观经济的波动,最后脉冲响应函数给出了冲击对于宏观波动的累计影响,脉冲响应函数和我们和用两步GMM估计的结果耦合,这更加佐证了本文估计的有效性。

This paper,based on Minsky' financial fragility theory and the neoclassical macroeconomics exogenous shocks,holds that financial instability is caused by exogenous shocks on financial vulnerability.The general equilibrium model of this paper shows that the random shocks of real interest rates and portfolio yields affect the stability of financial markets and the economy itself.The empirics of Two-step GMM method with data from China also support the conclusions of our model.