从科技文献看中国森林培育学50年之发展

Review and Expectation on Silviculture for 50 Years in China from Scientific and Technological Literatures

该文应用文献计量学的原理和方法，调研并收集了１９４９ ～１９９８ 年我国森林培育学科技论文２８ ０５３ 篇．结果表明：①我国森林培育学科技论文数量呈周期性波浪式增长，年均发表论文５６１篇，平均周期为３－６ ａ；②我国森林培育学发展经历了３ 个发展阶段，即缓慢发展阶段（１９４９ ～１９７７） 、高速发展阶段（１９７８ ～１９８９） 和稳定发展阶段（１９９０ ～１９９８） ；③在不同发展阶段，各分支学科的发展状况不同；④进入２１ 世纪，预计森林培育学科将以平均周期为３ ａ、年均发表论文１ ５００ 篇左右的速度稳定发展．

papers on silviculture (1949～1998) in China are gathered and studied applying the principle and method of literature metrology. The results show that, ① the amount of scientific and technological papers on silviculture in China present the increases with cyclical movement; ② The development of silviculture in China can be divided into three stages, i.e. slow stage (1949～1977), fast stage (1978～1989) and steady stage (1990～1998); ③ The development states of the branch subjects vary with different stages of development in silviculture; ④ The subjects of silviculture will develop steadily with the 3 years cycles and about 1 500 papers annually in average in the 21th century.