中国城市住房价格变化的影响因素分析——基于31个城市面板数据的实证研究

Analysis on the Impact Factor of Urban Housing Price Change:Empirical Research Based on 30 Cities'Panel Data

研究城市房价波动的影响因素及其程度,有助于提高政府宏观经济调控政策的针对性和有效性。首先构建住宅市场供需影响因素的均衡分析理论模型,然后通过固定效应模型,对我国31个主要城市1998~2008年的面板数据进行计量检验和实证研究。研究发现：利率和上期房价对房价的影响最为显著;收入水平对房价也存在一定影响,而空置率对房价上涨的影响较弱;人口、就业水平、地价和建设成本不能用来解释房价变化。

The research on impact factors of price fluctuations of urban housing and their impact degree helps the government to propose targeted and effective maeroeconomic control policy.This paper constructs the theoretical model of housing market equilibrium analysis of supply and demand factors,and does econometrics tests and empir-ical analysis based on panel data of the 1998~2008 in 31 major cities of the mainland.Findings include： the inter-est rates and the previous period price have most significant impact on housing price,income levels have some im-pact on housing price;while the vacancy rate only has weak impact on housing price;and population,employment,land and construction costs can not be used to explain the housing price changes.