农用柴油对农业经济增长的作用分析

Effects of Diesel Fuel Input on the Agricultural Economic Growth

在农业资本存量估算的基础上,本文应用KLEM模型框架测算1993~2009年省级层面农用柴油对农业经济增长的贡献率。并且在测算中考虑粮食主产区与非主产区、农业支持政策实施前与实施期的农用柴油投入产出弹性系数的不一致性。粮食主产区的农用柴油贡献率,农业支持政策实施前为19.26%,政策实施期为3.06%;非粮食主产区分别为2.47%和4.81%;全国分别为7.87%和3.84%。不考虑农业支持政策的实施冲击效果,全国的农用柴油贡献率为7.53%,粮食主产区和非粮食主产区分别为20.53%和2.15%。

On the basis of estimating agricultural capital stock,the KLEM model was firstly employed to measure the contribution rate of diesel fuel input on agricultural economic growth on the provincial level during the period from 1993 to 2009.The differences existing between areas and periods were analyzed,or the gravely biased estimation for the input-output elasticity of diesel fuel would be gotten.The contribution rate of diesel fuel input in the major-grain producing areas was 19.26% before agricultural support policies were implemented and 3.06% during the implementing period;2.47% and 4.81% respectively in the other areas;7.87% and 3.84% respectively in the whole country.Without considering the policy effects,2.15%,20.53% and 7.53% were measured correspondingly in the three kinds of areas mentioned above.