论主权货币充当储备货币的风险

On the Risks of Sovereign Currencies as Reserve Currencies

主权货币充当储备货币的风险可以概括为通货膨胀风险、汇率风险和铸币税风险,从货币配置资源的角度看,这三种风险对储备货币国家均有不同层面的影响。通货膨胀风险包括可测性贬值风险和不可测性贬值风险两种情况;汇率风险具有"宏观层面的汇率风险"与"微观层面的汇率风险"两种表现,且宏观层面的汇率风险防范不同于微观层面的汇率风险防范;铸币税风险则是储备货币国家外汇需求的一种必然。主权货币充当储备货币的结果是:储备货币国家的经济利益发生了向储备货币发行国单方面的转移,从而使得储备货币国家在参与经济全球化过程中付出了沉重的代价。

The risks of a sovereign currency as a reserve currency include the inflation risk,the exchange risk and the seigniorage risk.The paper researches the effects of these risks on the reserve currency country from the perspective of currency resource allocation.The inflation risk takes two forms：measurable depreciation risk in the statistical sense and immeasurable depreciation risk like evaporable water.The exchange risk is divided into the exchange risks on both the macro side and micro side,and risk management is different at different levels.The seigniorage risk comes from the foreign exchange demand of the reserve currency country.The paper concludes that the national economic interests are unilaterally transferred to the country issuing reserve currencies.It is a heavy price the reserve currency country pays when it gets integrated into the world economy.