新型农村养老保险制度的财政支持能力

Capacity of Financial Support of New Rural Pension Insurance System

对农村养老保险给予财政补贴是各国普遍做法。对农村人口老龄化、城市化和收入增长对新型农村养老保险财政负担的综合影响和提高保障程度的可能性的考察表明,人口老龄化对财政负担的影响将被城市化和财政收入增长所冲销,未来财政压力趋于下降,将养老保险替代率由目前约20%提高到30%具有较强的可行性,中央财政负担率低于4.5%。从县级财政能力来看,若不考虑转移支付,经济发展程度较低的县缴费补贴负担较重,平均超过5%,而东部地区的负担微不足道。

It is a common practice to give financial subsidies to old-age insurance in rural area in all countries. We study that aging of the rural population, urbanization and income growth will make what combined influence on the new rural pension insurance financial burden, and the possibility to improve the level of protection. The results show that： the popula- tion aging on the impact of financial burden will be wrier-off by urbanization and financial revenue growth. The future fi- nancial pressure is tended to decline. It is possible to raise the pension replacement rate from 20% to 30%.The central financial burden will be less than 4.5%. Without considering transfer payments, economically underdeveloped counties will pay a heavier burden. The average of subsidy payment is more than 5%, while the eastern part of the burden is negligible.