量刑规范化改革对二审刑期改判影响之实证分析

A positive Analysis on Revising the Judgment for Term of Criminal Second Hearing After the Reform of Standardizing Sentence

当前我国各级法院正全面推行量刑规范化改革,这对刑事二审刑期改判必然会带来一定的影响。在对过去30年来二审刑期改判数量和比率方面的变化特点进行考察的基础上,借助实证分析的方法,研究量刑规范化改革背景下二审刑期改判的走向和趋势,对于进一步深化量刑改革具有重要的意义。通过分析可以发现:推进量刑规范化改革之后,影响一审量刑和二审刑期改判的主要变量趋同,二审与一审量刑将有趋同的可能;二审刑期改判会受到一定限制;二审刑期改判率会下降;二审减轻刑罚率也会下降。

Nowadays,the reform of standardizing sentence which will have some influences on the revising judgment for term of criminal second hearing inevitably has been totally carried out from the basic courts to The Supreme People＇s Court of the People＇s Republic of China.It is very important to the perfection of the reform that based on the analysis of data on the quantity and ratio of revising judgment for term of criminal second hearing in the past 30 years,we can study the tendency of revising judgment for term of criminal second hearing under the background of the reform by the method of positive analysis.From the analysis,we can discover that after the reform of standardizing sentence,the principal variables which influence the first or the second hearing are same and the sentence of first instance and second would be convergent,and revising judgment for term of criminal second hearing will be limited,and the ratio of revising judgment for term and of reducing sentence of criminal second hearing would be decreased.