房价、调控与城市住房发展模式的转变

Housing price,market regulation and the development of urban housing in China

从市场经济视角来看,在这些年中国房价持续猛涨过程中,消费需求是基础、投资需求是主导、银行信贷是杠杆、地方政府是推手。近几年来楼市调控也取得了一些成效,但并不理想,其原因可从政策目标、执行机制和制度基础三方面寻找。从中国楼市的未来走向和格局看,前几年我国以发展商品房为主的单一城镇住房发展模式将有一个根本性转变,主要表现在发展目标、发展平台、需求结构和供给结构这几方面。

Of the continuously massive increases of the housing price in China in recent years,the market-oriented economy determines that the demand is the decisive factor,investment demand an important factor,bank credit the lever and the local government the backstage driving force.The market regulation is more or less effective,but not satisfying.The reasons can be found in policy goal,enforcement mechanism and institutions.Judging from the forecasting and distribution of China's real estate,the dominant model of developing commercial residential building will undergo a fundamental change in terms of the target,platform,demand structure and supply structure.