关于汽车驾驶过程中人因失误概率的预测研究

Research on prediction for human error rate in automobile driving

在汽车驾驶过程中，人因失误作为影响驾驶安全的重要因素备受人们关注。文章通过对已有HRA模型的改进和应用，使用THERP＋HCR模型可以实现对驾驶过程中的人因失误进行分析，对其失误概率进行预测。在分析过程中可以看到哪些因素对人的可靠性的影响程度最大。分析结果可以为相关人员采取培训措施或改进设计提供理论依据，以提高行车过程中驾驶员的可靠性，进而达到驾驶安全的目的。

As an important factor for safety driving , human error makes highly attention in the driving. Through improving the former HRA model and applying it , this paper use THERP＋HCR model can not only analyze the human error in driving ,but also make a prediction for the probability.We can see what influence the most to human reliability in the process of analysis. For drivers , the results of the analysis can be used to form a theoretical basis on training measures and improving designs, increasing the drivers＇ reliability, and finally reaching the purpose of safety-driving .