人民币汇率升值下的输入型通货膨胀——基于递归SVAR模型的经验分析

Imported inflation with the appreciation of RMB exchange rate——Empirical analysis based on recursive SVAR model

本文在探讨人民币汇率升值与输入型通货膨胀传导机理的基础上,通过建立递归SVAR模型,利用脉冲响应和方差分解方法,分析了输入型通货膨胀对我国通货膨胀的影响。研究结果表明:输入型通货膨胀不仅是影响我国通货膨胀的主要因素之一,而且其影响具有持久性的特征。因此,在控制我国通货膨胀的过程中,应采取降低和防范输入型通货膨胀影响的相关对策。

Based on the discussion on the appreciation of RMB exchange rate and the transmission mechanism of imported inflation, we set up recursive SVAR model, use impulse response and variance decomposition method to analyze the influence of imported inflation on China＇ s inflation. The resultr suggest that： imported inflation could be one of the main factors influencing China＇ s inflation, and it has lasting impact. As a result, in the control of the inflation in China, we should adopt related coun- termeasures to decrease and prevent the influence of imported inflation.