三疣梭子蟹中副溶血性弧菌定量风险评估探索

Risk Analysis on Vibrio Parahaemolyticus in Portunus Trituberculatus

[目的]通过模拟三疣梭子蟹(Portunus trituberculatus,俗称"梭子蟹")消费,针对其携带的副溶血性弧菌所致疾病进行微生物定量风险评估探索。[方法]参照国际食品法典委员会(CAC)推荐的风险评估程序评估,包括危害识别、危害特征描述、暴露评估和危险性特征描述,结合暴露评估模型的结果和β-泊松剂量反应模型,推测由消费了被副溶血性弧菌污染的梭子蟹所致疾病发生的危险性。[结果]由消费了被副溶血性弧菌污染的梭子蟹所致发生疾病的危险性分别为冬季5.86×10^(-9),春季2.71×10^(-8),夏季1.46×10^(-6),秋季5.23×10^(-8)。敏感性分析结果表明,市售梭子蟹贮存温度和体内副溶血性弧菌密度的对数值等因素,与所致疾病发生的危险性相关。采取降低零售期间的梭子蟹贮存温度、延长售后冷藏时间等控制措施,能够明显降低发病人数。[结论]该研究作为风险分析在食源性疾病监控中的应用探索,为开展微生物定量风险评估提供技术参考。

[ Objective ] To preliminarily explore microbial quantitative risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus related disease by means of simulated consumption ofPortunus trituberculatus. [ Methods ] In accordance with risk assessment procedures recommended by the Codex Alimentarius Commission（ CAC ）, including hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure assessment and risk characterization, combining with the results of exposure assessment model and β-Poisson dose- response model, the risk of disease caused by crab Consumption contaminated with V. parahaemolyticus was speculated. [ Results ] The risks caused by crab consumption contaminated with V. parahaemolyticus were 5.86 ×10^-9 in winter, 2.71 ×10^-8 in spring, 1.46 ×10^-6 in summer, and 5.23 ×10^-6 in autumn separately. Sensitivity analysis showed that storage temperature and E parahaemolyticus concentration of crab on sale and other factors significantly correlated to the risk of the disease. When some control measures were taken, such as to reduce the retail storage temperature, and to extend the pest-sales frozen time could significantly reduce the incidence of the diseases. [ Conclusion ] This study as an application of research on risk analysis in food-borne diseases surveillance, is a technical reference for the quantitative risk assessment.