药品疗效的一种预测方法

A FORECASTING METHOD OF MEDICINE EFFICACY

依据美国艾滋病医疗试验机构ACTG公布的数据,借助计算机利用Matlab软件拟合出一般患者在服药期间,血液中CD4值随时间变化的规律及治疗效果最佳时间。本文独到之处是在数据处理时,根据被检测患者人数的多少对数据赋予相应的权重,逐次拟合函数,加权平均得到符合实际的函数关系f(t)=-0.1135t2+6.5889t+98.576。此法在统计数据的处理上和药品治疗效果预测上都有一定参考价值。

Based on the data released by the AIDS medical experiments agency of United State ACTG, the paper fits to the change law with time of CD4 values in the blood and the best time for electricity therapy using software of Matlah. The features of this article are that the corresponding weight is given according to the number of patients in a data processing. By Successive intended to function and the weighted average law, the paper gets the function relations f（t） = -0. 1135t^2 ＋ 6. 5589t ＋ 98. 576 corresponding to actual. This method has reference value in the statistical data processing and for forecasting of medicines.