吉林省春玉米生产潜力估算及其时空变化特征分析

Research on spatial-temporal evolvement characters of agroclimatic resources for spring maize in Jilin Province

对1961～2008年吉林省18个县（市）模拟光温生产力和气候生产力的时空变化特征进行了统计分析.结果表明：吉林省平均光温生产力为25 t/hm2,分布趋势是西北-东南部递减,中西部地区较高,大干25 t/hm2,东部地区较低为24.3 t/hm2,近50a来吉林省光温生产力呈上升趋势,光温生产力年际间及年代季间变化比较小;吉林省平均气侯生产力为14.7 t/hm2,分布趋势是西北一东南递增,东部地区最高为18.1 t/hm2,中部地区次之为14.6t/hm2,西部地区最低为8.3 t/hm2,近50 a来吉林省气候生产力呈下降趋势,气候生产力年际间及年代季间变化比较大.水分是制约吉林省中西部春玉米产量的主要因子,由气候生产力和光温生产力差异计算了水分增产力,水分增产力呈西北-东南部递减.

Numerical simulation of the agroclimatic resources for spring maize in Jilin Province from 1961～2008 was conducted to analyse the spatial-temporal evolvement characters of the production potential of photo-temperature and climatic potential productivity.The results showed that： the average production potential of photo-temperature was 25 t/hm2,descending from northwest to southeast,and it was over 25 t/hm2 in the west and middle,while it was less in the east.The production potential of photo-temperature was going up in recent 50 years,and the variation of the production potential of photo-temperature was relatively small between years and decades.The average potential climatic productivity was 14.7 t/hm2,increasing from northwest to southeast,the highest productivity was in east,higher in middle,the lowest in west,and it was going down in recent 50 years,while the its variation was relatively obvious between years and decades.Water is a main factor which restricts spring maize yield in midwest Jinlin,and the potential production of water was computed with the favorable water for spring maize growth,showing a descending trend from northwest to southeast.