投影寻踪技术在突发事件风险分类评级中的应用——以广东省雷电灾害风险评价为例

Application of Projection Pursuit Technology in Emergency Risk Classification and Rating——A Case Study on Assessment of Lightning Disaster in Guangdong Province

针对目前突发事件风险等级评价半定量化、等级的分辨率较粗糙的不足,使用投影寻踪、遗传算法和模拟技术建立了突发事件风险分类评级过程,该评价过程体现了较强的客观性以及等级连续性的特点。运用该评价过程建立了广东省雷电灾害风险评价模型,对广东省雷电灾害进行实证研究。结果显示,风险评价结果与实际情况具有很强的一致性,体现了该风险评价过程的合理性。

According to the deficiency of semi-quantity and rough grade resolution of evaluation on emergencies risk classification at present, and using projection pursuit, genetic algorithm and simulated technology, the emergency risk classification and rating process is established, which reflects the strong objectivity and grade continuity. An evaluation model in Guangdong Province is established by using the evaluation process, and lightning disasters in the province are studied by empirical study. The results show that the evaluation model is of good precision and the results are basically consistent with the fact and reflect that the risk assessments process is rational.