1780-1819年华北平原水旱灾害社会响应方式的转变

Changes in the Ways of Social Response to Floods and Droughts in North China Plain during 1780～1819

历史时期水旱灾害的社会响应典型案例重建是气候变化影响与适应研究的重要方向。选取1780-1819年间华北平原发生的4次典型水旱灾害(1785、1792、1813年旱灾及1801年水灾),基于清代档案资料和历史气候重建结果提取代用指标,对其灾情严重程度、政府救灾力度和灾民行为进行了量化描述和对比分析,发现:①4次灾害中赈济密度(赈灾物资数/成灾州县数)逐次下降,1813年旱灾中降至不足1785年旱灾的1/6,政府救灾力度遭到严重削弱;②灾民行为日益失控,从1792年旱灾和1801年水灾中的大规模跨区域迁徙,发展到1813年旱灾中大量加入盗匪和起义军,走向暴力。这一转变的发生,是在自然(气候突变、灾害增多)、社会(政府财政危机、人地矛盾激化)不利背景之下,政府与灾民的互动关系日趋消极的结果。

Reconstruction of cases about how human society responded to floods and droughts in history would be instructive for current research on adaptation to climate changes.Based on historical documents and climate change research,4 typical disasters（droughts in 1785,1792,1813;flood in 1801） in North China Plain during 17801819 are selected.With proxy indexes describing disaster situation,governmental disaster relief and victims’ behavior,they are quantitatively reconstructed and compared with each other.The results are as follows.（1） Relief density index（quantity of relief supplies/affected counties） successively decreased in the 4 disasters,from 3.59 in 1785 to 0.56 in 1813,which means governmental disaster relief had been crippled in the period.（2） Victims’ behavior was gradually lost of control,from upsurge of emigration in 1792 and 1801 to armed uprising in 1813.The transformation occurred as a result of negative interaction between government and civilians,under the pressure of abrupt climate change,overpopulation,and financial crisis in corresponding period.