基于粗糙集的城市燃气管道破坏灾害演化诱发机制分析

Analysis on the Inducing Mechanism of Disaster Evolution for the Urban Gas Pipeline Accidents Based on Rough Set Theory

利用粗糙集理论,在分析大量事故案例的基础上,构建城市燃气管道破坏事故的灾害演化网络模型,找出网络中各灾害事件的诱发因素,在此基础上,对诱发因素进行分级,并将分级的诱发因素作为条件属性,将各灾害事件是否发生作为决策属性;根据条件属性和决策属性,建立相应的数据信息表;对数据信息表中信息进行处理与计算,得到各个条件属性的上近似、下近似、正域,进而比较和计算分析得出可约简的条件属性,在此基础上,给出危机事件基于粗糙集的信息提取与不同条件下危机事件的预测分析。以交通封锁和交通堵塞两个危机事件的诱发过程为例来阐述上述方法,给出了在不同演化条件下交通封锁和交通堵塞是否发生以及发生概率。

The evolution network for urban gas pipeline accidents is established by analyzing a large number of accident eases and using rough set theory. Then inducing factors of different types of disasters in the network are sort out, based on which, the inducing factors are graded. The graded inducing factors are regarded as condition attributes, while whether the different types of disasters occurred are treated as decision attributes. The information tables are built on the basis of the condition attributes and decision attributes. The upper approximation set, lower approximation set and positive region are obtained by calculating and analyzing the information tables, based on which reduced condition attributes are achieved. Also, the rules of crisis events are extracted based on rough sets theory, so does the prediction and analysis of crisis events. Traffic blocking and jams are selected as two examples to describe the mentioned method. The probabilities of the above crisis events in different conditions of traffic jams in the network are presented.