自然灾害对我国粮食安全影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Natural Disasters on Food Security in China

为了对自然灾害给中国粮食安全带来的影响有更加准确的认识,通过建立误差修正模型、VAR模型等,定量分析了自然灾害对我国粮食生产、居民粮食消费的影响。结果表明,自然灾害对当年粮食生产影响较大,通过粮食产量和粮食价格的相互作用,自然灾害对居民粮食消费影响的时间较长。提出了加强自然灾害预警平台的建设、推进农田水利设施等农业基础设施的建设、完善粮食市场建设的对策建议。

In order to have a more accurate understanding about the effect of natural disasters on China＇ s food security, the error correction model and VAR model and so on were adopted to quantitatively analyze the impact of natural disasters on the food production and consumption in China. As indicated by the results, natural disasters exerted a large influence on food production, ~nd the influence sustained due to the in- teraction of grain production and grain price. It was proposed to strengthen the construction of natural disaster warning platform, promote the building of agricultural basic facilities and perfect the establishment of food market.