超强台风鲇鱼路径北翘预报分析

Forecast Analysis on the Abrupt Northward Recurvature of Super Typhoon Megi(1013)

利用常规气象观测资料、实时业务数值预报模式、欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)ERA Interim全球再分析资料(1.5°×1.5°)以及NCEP全球再分析资料(1°×1°),对1013号超强台风鲇鱼移入南海后路径突然北翘的原因进行了初步分析,并对业务数值预报模式及中日美三家综合业务预报的台风路径预报进行了检验。结果发现:南半球越赤道气流向北涌进致使赤道缓冲带北进与"鲇鱼"东侧的副热带高压脊合并是"鲇鱼"在南海路径发生突然北翘的主要原因;当业务数值预报模式出现较大分歧时,台风路径多模式集成预报或超级集合预报是解决数值预报较大分歧的有效途径,为此有必要加强台风路径多模式集成预报或超级集合预报综合应用平台的研发,并在此基础上进一步完善现有台风业务预报流程。

By using conventional meteorological observations,real time operational numerical forecast models, ECMWF ERA Interim global reanalysis data（1.5°×1.5°） and NCEP global reanalysis data（1°×1°）, a preliminary analysis is made about the reason that Super Typhoon Megi（1013） abruptly northward recurvated after it moved into the South China Sea.And three subjective forecasts of CMA,JMA and JTWC and some operational numerical model forecasts for Megi＇s abruptly northward recurvature are verified and estimated.The results show that the main reason that Megi＇s abruptly northward recurvature in the South China Sea is the mergence of the equatorial buffer zone and the subtropical high ridge located at the east side of Megi while the Southern Hemispheric cross-equatorial flow northward poured.The analysis also shows that the multi-model consensus forecast or the super ensemble prediction of tropical cyclone track is an effective way to solve their uncertainty when operational numerical forecast models show large differences for the track of a tropical cyclone.Therefore it is necessary to strengthen the development of integrated application platform about multi-model consensus forecast or super-ensemble forecast for tropical cyclone track.Then it is essential to further improve the existing operational tropical cyclone forecast work flows on the basis of the platform development.