基于光温效应的杨梅生育期模型的建立与验证

Development and Validation of a Photo-thermal Effectiveness Based Simulation Model for Development of Myrica rubra

根据杨梅发育对光温的反应过程,利用不同的地点、年份和品种试验资料,建立了以光温效应(Photo-thermal effectiveness,PTE)为尺度参数的杨梅生育期模拟模型,并运用独立的数据对其进行验证。结果表明,模型对杨梅雌花序出现、雌花开放、展叶、坐果、果实成熟等生育期所需天数的模拟值与实测值之间的回归估计标准误差(RMSE)分别为2.51、1.83、2.68、2.70和2.45 d;与以有效积温法(RMSE分别为8.02、7.81、5.46、5.40和11.83 d)和PAR日积分法(RMSE分别为8.28、11.0、8.52、5.56和6.87 d)为尺度的发育模型相比,模拟精度分别提高了8.6%和10.2%。

Based on the photo-thermal reactions of Myrica rubra,experimental data from different sites,years and varieties were used to develop a simulation model for development of Myrica rubra.Then the model was validated by independent experimental data.The results showed that the root mean squared error（RMSE）between simulated and observed days needed for reaching the development stage of female inflorescence emergence,female inflorescence flowering,leaf extending,fruit-setting and fruit ripening,respectively,were 2.51,1.83,2.68,2.70 and 2.45 days.Compared with the growth degree days（GDD） based mode（lRMSE was 8.02,7.81,5.46,5.40 and 11.83 days）and the PAR integral base mode（lRMSE was 8.28,11.0,8.52,5.56,6.87 days）,the photo-thermal effectiveness based model developed in this study increased the simulation accuracy by 8.6% and 10.2%,respectively.