政策问题成因分析的程序和方法

Procedure and Methods of the Analysis on Policy Problems

剖析政策问题产生的原因是公共政策分析中一个极为重要的环节,这一业务环节由系统查找政策问题的影响因素、影响因素的辨析和归类、构建政策问题的形成机理三个子环节组成。除了使用归纳和演绎两种基本方法之外,政策分析者还可以采取边界分析、层次分析、头脑风暴、专家判断、鱼骨图等定性方法以及回归分析、聚类分析等定量分析技术,对政策问题的成因做出科学的判断。

Analysis of the causes of policy problems is a very important step in public policy analysis. The step is composed by three sub-steps： searching systematically for factors which influence policy issues, classifying those factors into several categories and constructing the mechanism for policy issues. In addition to using induction and deduction, policy analysts may also use qualitative methods like boundary analysis, Analytic Hierarchy Process, brainstorming, expert judgment and Fishbone Diagram and quantitative methods like regression analysis, cluster analysis to make policy ana- lysts judge policy issues scientifically.