新疆中强地震前ECRS方法的异常研究

Research on Anomaly of ECRS Method before Moderate-strong Earthquakes in Xinjiang Region

基于多种地震学参数的地震对应相关谱(ECRS)方法在新疆地区的地震预测中已得到一定程度的应用。为了进一步检验该方法的效能,本文根据其定义和识别方法研制了ECRS1.0分析软件,并应用于实际震例中。结果显示,利用该分析软件可以充分提取多种地震学参数的综合前兆异常信息;新疆大部分中强震前半年至一年半震源区及附近区域开始出现高值异常集中区域,并随着地震的临近逐渐向震中集中扩展,在震后半年至两年逐渐消散或弱化。

The earthquake corresponding relevancy spectrum（ECRS） method which based on multiple seismic parameters has been used in earthquake prediction in Xinjiang region for a certain extent in recent years.In order to test the efficency of ECRS method,a software ECRS1.0 for analyzed anomaly of ECRS is developed in this paper,according to the defining and anomaly identifying method of ECRS,and is applied in real earthquake cases.The result shows that the comprehensive precursor anomaly information for many seismic parameters can be extracted by this method adequately.In Xinjiang region,the high value area of anomaly appears before most moderate-strong earthquakes around epicentre within half-year to 1.5 year,spreads and strengthens to epicentre area gradually before event coming,and disappears or turns to low value after event in half-year to two years.