西部农业农村基础设施发展水平综合评价及预测——以宁夏回族自治区为例

Comprehensive Evaluationand Prediction on Development of Agricultural and Rural Infrastructures in Western Regions——A Case Study in Ningxia Autonomous Region

从农业生产基础设施、农村生活基础设施、农村社会发展基础设施以及林业和农村生态设施4个方面,尝试构建宁夏农业农村基础设施发展水平评价指标体系。选取1999—2008年有关统计数据对宁夏农业农村基础设施发展水平进行了定量评价,分析发现宁夏川区农业农村基础设施发展水平是全国平均水平的74%,而南部山区的农业农村基础设施发展水平仅相当于全国和川区平均值的6 2%和8 3.8%。利用灰色系统预测模型,对宁夏农业农村基础设施发展水平进行预测,并提出加快宁夏农业农村基础设施发展的对策建议。

This paper tries to establish an index system to evaluate agricultural and rural infrastructures in NingXia from the following four aspects：infrastructures of agricultural production,infrastructures of rural life,infrastructures of social development in rural areas and forestry and rural ecological facilities.On that basis,this paper selects the data obtained during the period from 1999 to 2008 to make quantitative evaluation on the current agricultural and rural infrastructures of NingXia.The results show that the agricultural and rural infrastructure of northern NingXia is 74% of the national average and that of southern Ningxia is 62% of the national average and 83.8% of Northern Ningxia＇s average respectively.Using gray systematic prediction model,this paper finally predicts the development of agricultural and rural infrastructures and puts forward corresponding countermeasures on how to quicken the construction of agricultural and rural infrastructures in Ningxia.